Inflation Falls to 2.5% in June, Hitting Central Bank Target
Poland's inflation rate dropped to 2.5% year-on-year in June 2026, landing precisely within the central bank's target and opening the door to possible interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.
Inflation in June 2026 came in at 2.5 percent year-on-year, according to Poland's Central Statistical Office (GUS). Compared to May, consumer prices fell by 0.5 percent. Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes had expected inflation of 2.7% year-on-year and a 0.2% monthly decline.
In May, inflation stood at 3.1% year-on-year. The June figure means Poland is now within the National Bank of Poland's inflation target range of 2.5% ±1 percentage point.
What Drove Prices Down
GUS highlighted three key categories: food and non-alcoholic beverages fell 0.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month; electricity, gas and other fuels rose 4.8% annually but fell 0.4% monthly; and transport fuels rose 5.3% year-on-year but dropped 7.4% month-on-month.
Experts at ING bank noted that "interest rates will remain unchanged in July," but added that "the market may start pricing in cuts in the second half of this year." Analysts at Pekao suggested that "inflation at year-end may be lower than 3%," a significant downward revision from earlier forecasts of 5–6%.
For expats and foreign residents, lower inflation means your złoty-denominated salary or pension goes further. If you're planning to remit money abroad or convert savings, stable inflation and potential rate cuts later this year may influence exchange-rate trends. Keep an eye on National Bank of Poland announcements—rate cuts typically weaken the złoty slightly but can boost consumer confidence and economic activity.
Sources
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