UK Grocery Inflation Eases to 3% as Heatwave Drives Summer Sales
Supermarket price rises slowed to 3% in the four weeks to mid-June, defying concerns that Middle East tensions would push food costs higher. A ten-day heatwave helped boost sales of barbecue items and suncare.
UK grocery inflation held steady at 3.0% in the four weeks to 14 June, according to data from Worldpanel by Numerator released on 23 June, easing concerns that energy shocks linked to conflict in the Middle East would feed through more sharply into supermarket prices.
Like-for-like grocery inflation stood at 3.0% in the four weeks to 14 June, while take-home sales at grocers rose 2.4% year on year. The figures suggested price pressures remain present but have not accelerated materially despite recent volatility in global markets.
Heatwave drives demand
The period was shaped by the UK's hottest May day on record and a ten-day heatwave, which drove a sharp increase in spending on summer products, with suncare sales more than doubling (up 128%) and fresh beef burger sales growing 40%.
While overall food inflation figures from the ONS show food inflation decreased from 3.0% in May to 2.2% in June, with current overall inflation remaining at 3% (CPIH), campaigners warn that prices remain significantly higher than pre-crisis levels. The Food Foundation's Basic Basket tracking shows the cost of a woman's weekly shop now costs £53.51, an increase since April 2022 of 30.6%.
What this means for you
If you're on a fixed income in pounds — whether as a student, visa holder, or worker — your grocery bill is still rising, but more slowly than in 2022–23. The 3% rate is below overall inflation, meaning food is becoming slightly more affordable relative to other costs. If you're paid in another currency and send money home, the improving food inflation picture may help stretch your budget a bit further, though cumulative increases since 2022 mean your shopping basket still costs roughly 30% more than it did four years ago.
Sources
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